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If the latest reports of the fugitive general's arrest are premature, it won't be the first time.

By Nerma Jelacic in Sarajevo

Despite a series of claims by international media and unofficial sources that former Bosnian Serb military leader Ratko Mladic has been arrested after ten years on the run, no confirmation is yet available.

The confusing information started on Tuesday evening, after a local television station in Serbia reported that an arrest operation aimed at bringing in Mladic was underway.

Two hours later, the media in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia and Montenegro were filled with conflicting reports on the results of the operation. Soon after, international media outlets, including Reuters and Sky News, followed suit.

But the only certain thing that has so far transpired is that Serbia's government, under heavy pressure from the international community to fulfil its obligations to the United Nations court, may have started negotiating Mladic's surrender.

Mladic is wanted by the Hague war crimes tribunal on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity for his involvement in the conflict that engulfed Bosnia ten years ago, and for leading the attack on the safe heaven of Srebrenica in July 1995, in which more than 8,000 Muslim boys and men were executed.

Since the end of the war Mladic has successfully avoided arrest, partly owing to the support he enjoyed, at first openly and later secretly, from official circles in Serbia and Montenegro.

But in 2005 pressure intensified on Serbia to deliver Mladic, if it was to avoid future sanctions from the international community and start negotiating its accession to the European Union.

Insiders say while Serbia has finally taken these threats seriously, the issue of how to deliver Mladic to international justice without provoking uproar at home remains complicated.

Since a large majority of Serbs view the fugitive general as a hero and oppose his arrest, any government that fulfils this obligation faces potential punishment at the next elections.

However, the chief prosecutor of the Hague war crimes tribunal, Carla Del Ponte, appears determined to see Mladic in the dock during 2006.

She recently threatened to urge Brussels to suspend its talks with Serbia on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, SAA, if Mladic is not in the court soon.

It was such threats that started off previous, false, reports of his arrest.

Mladic's "imminent arrest" was reported in July 2005, for example, when the world commemorated the tenth anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre, then again in November, as the tenth anniversary neared of the Dayton peace accords, which ended the Bosnian war.

Each time the reports turned out to be untrue, the only impact being to increase victims' frustration with Serbia, the Hague tribunal and the international community.

If the latest "arrest" turns out to be another exercise in disinformation, the effect will be the same.

Some sources in The Hague have insisted that the "arrest operation" was merely an attempt by the Serbian government of Vojislav Kostunica to send a signal that they were working on fulfilling their task.

The source said Belgrade may be trying to show Brussels that it is serious in order to avoid the threatened suspension of talks on a SAA.

But The Hague has been insistent that the Serbian authorities have known of Mladic's whereabouts since 1998 and could make a quick arrest if they wanted to.

Del Ponte in Wednesday's press statement confirmed this and added: "There is no indication at all that negotiations about his surrender are currently being conducted."

"I was in contact with the authorities in Belgrade yesterday and I was assured that there is not truth in all this. Mladic remains at large." the chief prosecutor said.

In the meantime, while denying media reports of Mladic's arrest, the government has called an extraordinary session.

Details of the alleged arrest varied greatly. While some claimed he was seized in Belgrade, others said the operation was ongoing on the eastern Bosnian mountain of Majevica, near the border town of Bjeljina.

Another option said he was arrested on the Serbian mountain of Cer. Indeed, the starting point of the entire media panic was a local television station in the Serbian town of Sabac, which first released the "news" that Mladic had been arrested in Cer.

This was then filtered through to a Bosnian Serb television station in Bijeljina, which has a significantly larger frequency coverage. From there the item was picked up by newswires, state television stations, radio stations and finally by Reuters and Sky News.

As the news travelled, some reported that Mladic was already in the Hague, which the court denied. Others said he had been transferred to NATO's military base in the north-eastern Bosnian town of Tuzla. But reporters near the airbase saw no aircraft take off or land at the airport.

United States government sources in Belgrade and Sarajevo said they did not believe any arrests had been made.

In the end, it appeared clear that the local media had started the frenzy. "If he is not arrested," some of the media then reported, "Mladic has been definitely located and his surrender is now being negotiated."

This has brought the Hague tribunal, the Serbian government and the exasperated victims back to the starting point, which is that the runaway general is most definitely not in The Hague's detention facility.

Nerma Jelacic is BIRN's Bosnia and Herzegovina country director. Balkan Insight is BIRN's internet publication.